Moscow Airports Halt Operations for Up to Nine Hours Amid Daily Drone Strikes

Four major airports in the Moscow region suspended operations almost every day in October, with some closures lasting up to nine hours. The interruptions stem from a sustained Ukrainian drone campaign that has intensified over recent months, forcing Russian aviation authorities to apply strict safety measures.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy outlined the strategy in early September, stating that Ukraine would work to cut off airspace around Moscow and other Russian destinations. He warned that Russian airspace would become completely unsafe for airlines, insurers, and travelers. Ukraine sent a corresponding warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization the following day. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022, Ukrainian airspace has remained closed.

The closures are triggered by a safety protocol used by Rosaviatsiya, Russia’s aviation authority. Known as the carpet protocol, this procedure mandates the immediate closure of airspace over a region or around specific airports if an aircraft violates Russian airspace, weapons are deployed, or unidentified objects appear. Once activated, strict limits are imposed on all air traffic. Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of Friendly Avia Support, noted that every drone presents a military threat. He compared the disruption to the impact of Yemen’s Houthis on Saudi airspace, arguing that Ukraine’s military capabilities far exceed those of the Houthis.

Jan Matvejev, a military analyst, stated that Ukraine can severely disrupt air traffic around Moscow without fully closing Russian airspace. He explained that triggering the protocol requires only simple drones that lack warheads or long range. Ukraine’s arms industry currently produces hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones daily. Simon Shuster wrote in The Atlantic in October that Ukraine’s efforts are just getting started, citing well-informed sources.

Experts indicate that Russian air defenses have not fully neutralized the threat. Matvejev argued that if it were possible to shoot the drones down, Russia would have done so by now. He suggested that Russia would have deployed more air-defense troops if they were available. Both Laneckij and Matvejev warned of risks to civilian flights. Laneckij said Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol, increasing the danger of incidents similar to the 2024 Christmas day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight. Investigators determined that Russian air-defense missiles fired to counter drones struck that aircraft, killing 38 people.

Matvejev noted that little has changed in Russia’s air-defense protocol since the Azerbaijan Airlines crash. He observed that against a low-flying drone visually identified and shot with a machine gun, the risk to aircraft is extremely low. However, missiles pose a different risk because defects in mass production could send a missile toward a nearby airliner. Matvejev added that drones need no explosives to cause harm, as a collision with an airplane can be serious. He stated that a drone flown from Ukraine to Moscow must be fairly large, weighing dozens of kilograms.

Disruptions have extended beyond Moscow. Ukrainian forces attacked the Pskov airport in the summer of 2023, and drone debris fell on the Sochi airport earlier this month. Russia has also struck Ukrainian airports. In September, Zelenskyy said that Kyiv’s airport and Boryspil, located near the capital, were hit.

Oleksandr Laneckij said that whether foreign airlines continue flying to Russia depends on three factors: the military threat, demand, and insurance costs. If insurers rate the risk as very high, they could sharply raise premiums, which would send ticket prices soaring. Competition in Russia’s aviation market has already shrunk because many airlines have gone out of business, pushing up demand for seats on remaining foreign carriers. Laneckij stated that the decision to stay or leave depends on the price airlines must pay for the danger faced.

The next scheduled operations at Moscow-area airports depend on daily assessments of the airspace conditions by Russian aviation authorities.