Mansfield: Balochistan Becomes New Opium Center After Afghan Ban

Opium production is shifting across borders from Afghanistan into Pakistan and Iran.

David Mansfield, a UK-based expert on the region’s illicit drugs trade, stated that the Taliban’s 2022 narcotics ban and local instability have turned the tri-border area into a global center for opium production. Mansfield, author of A State Built On Sand: How Opium Undermined Afghanistan, noted that satellite imagery and farmer interviews confirm this trend. He warned that cultivation could rise further in 2027, potentially increasing heroin supplies and funding armed groups.

Pakistan’s Balochistan province is at the center of this shift. Mansfield’s August report for the British firm Alcis identified more than 9,000 hectares of poppy cultivation in the province. The crop is concentrated primarily in the districts of Loralai and Killa Abdullah. Abdul Qahar Wadan, a former National Assembly member from Killa Abdullah, claimed that senior military officials and pro-government power brokers support the industry by taking commissions from growers. Monawar Hussain, the district’s chief administrative officer, disputed this, citing a decline after last year’s eradication campaign. However, Alcis imagery from 2026 shows no clear evidence of those eradication efforts.

Farmers in Killa Abdullah report that they pay bribes to local authorities through intermediaries. One farmer said growers sometimes plant poppies on barren land when media pressure increases. This allows officials to destroy the crop and publicize the effort. Lala Jan Kakar, a resident of the district, explained that insecurity, drought, and flash floods have damaged traditional fruit farming. He stated that the demand and income from poppies now far exceed those from fruit. "It's not possible to resist it anymore," Kakar said.

Afghan farmers from Kandahar and Helmand provinces are leasing land in Balochistan, bringing capital and expertise. Kakar noted that these investors spend millions of Pakistani rupees on solar-powered wells and share profits with local landowners. Many farmers doubled their cultivated area in 2026. Mansfield called this expansion a stark indication that much higher cultivation levels are likely in 2027. Poppies can be harvested twice a year, increasing the return on investment.

A similar pattern is emerging in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province. Afghan farmers work there as tenants and sharecroppers, often using family ties. Satellite imagery from 2026 shows extensive fields in the region, some using drip irrigation. This costly investment suggests growers who planted in late 2025 expected little risk of eradication. Mansfield described the shift as a move from mixed farming to large-scale poppy monoculture. Iranian authorities have been unable or unwilling to destroy the 2026 crop due to the war against the United States and Israel, which began in late February.

Cultivation is also rebounding inside Afghanistan despite the ban. Production is concentrated in northeastern Badakhshan Province and several southwestern provinces. Mansfield said that southwestern cultivation almost doubled between 2025 and 2026. Farmers in these areas have defied the ban due to drought and debt. A recent directive barring home searches for poppy without a court order has created uncertainty. Mansfield warned that farmers may interpret this concession as permission to expand beyond walled compounds, potentially causing a dramatic rise in output in 2027.