Citrinowicz: Third U.S.-Iran War Likely After Nov. 3 Midterms

A third phase of the U.S.-Iran war is likely to begin after the November 3 midterm elections, according to Danny Citrinowicz.

Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence official who now works at the Institute for National Security Studies, told CBC News that a renewed conflict appears "almost inevitable." He expects the next round of fighting to be more destructive than the two previous engagements.

The United States and Israel have already fought Iran twice in the past 18 months. The first conflict started in June 2025 with strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and lasted 12 days. Fighting resumed in February following a major U.S. military buildup, beginning with Israeli attacks on Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Citrinowicz said Iranian signals indicate the next attacks will focus on Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communications lines under the Strait of Hormuz. He also suggested Iran might use its land army for limited strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain, where U.S. bases are located, to damage the American economy.

Since the summer truce broke down, direct strikes have paused, but the conflict continues. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, while Iran targets commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump accused Iran on Truth Social on Thursday of inflating oil prices before the midterms by creating "fake hits, mines and everything else."

A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agrees that vessel attacks aim to pressure Washington. Iran seeks sanctions relief, reparations, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have tried to restart talks for weeks without success.

The death toll is high. Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran, while Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have been killed. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, though it is unclear if Trump will approve it.

Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that the war has pushed Iran to double down on its revolutionary ideology. She expects retaliation from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah, potentially targeting airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said Trump lacks a clear goal and that no military strike will force Iran to capitulate.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces voters in a close race this week. He has spoken of "finishing the job" against the Iranian regime. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu form an emergency unity government. He warned that political calculations could lead to an unnecessary attack if Netanyahu inflates an Iranian development.

Sadjadpour argued diplomacy is not dead but has been narrowed. He said Iran would compromise only under existential economic pressure and a clear diplomatic exit. "If you're asking them to change their identity, that's not going to succeed," Sadjadpour said.