40%: The Student List's Target in Serbia's Tightest Election

Political scientist Dusan Spasojevic estimates that the Student List could win more than 40% of the vote in Sunday's parliamentary election in Serbia. This projection marks the first competitive contest since the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) took power in 2012.

The Student List represents a movement that has protested the government for nearly two years. On Thursday evening, thousands gathered in Belgrade for the group's final rally. Many attendees had walked for days from various regions of the country to reach the capital. Biology student Arsa Stojanovic told the crowd that the group had visited villages and neighborhoods across Serbia and learned that they could count on the public. Aleksandar Cupic, a transport engineering professor and candidate, remarked that the atmosphere "smells like freedom." The event concluded with a kolo, a traditional circle dance.

The student movement traces its origins to November 2024, when a concrete canopy collapsed at the Novi Sad railway station, killing 16 people. Organizers frame the upcoming vote as a mechanism to address corruption and demand accountability for that disaster. They have attempted to bridge ideological, social, and foreign-policy divisions that have historically shaped Serbian politics.

The ruling SNS held a rival closing rally a few kilometers away. Party officials argued that a vote for the SNS ensures stability, continuity, and prosperity, while a change in leadership risks chaos. Former President Aleksandar Vucic accused opponents of serving foreign interests and claimed they had attacked the party with billions of euros.

The campaign has been marked by reported friction. The independent monitoring group CRTA recorded 116 incidents of physical violence or verbal threats during the final week. These incidents included physical confrontations and attempts to seize campaign banners. CRTA noted that opposition activists, particularly those linked to the Student List, faced surveillance and police questioning.

Media analysis suggests a skewed information environment. CRTA reported that nearly three-quarters of national television airtime went to government representatives. More than 80% of coverage regarding the Student List was negative. The Balkan Investigative Reporting Network published testimony from a former SNS member describing pressure on public-sector employees to deliver votes. Anonymous sources told Deutsche Welle that voters were offered between €30 and €150, or family holiday packages, to support the SNS.

Authorities have warned of potential street violence following the vote, alleging that foreign intelligence services are aiding students in these preparations. Several individuals have been arrested on suspicion of plotting disturbances for election night. Spasojevic indicated that a narrow margin in the results is likely. He stated that a narrow SNS victory would almost certainly be contested, as the movement has vowed to defend every vote.

An EU Commission spokesperson told Deutsche Welle that key recommendations for improving Serbia's electoral framework remain unimplemented. The spokesperson emphasized that democracy and the rule of law are central to the accession process, noting that Serbia has been an EU candidate country since 2012.