Exit polls show 51 to 51 tie in Israel election, forcing complex coalition talks

Israeli voters face a potential government formation crisis after exit polls published by major television networks showed a 51 to 51 tie between the governing bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the opposition grouping led by Gadi Eisenkot. This result leaves both sides short of the 61 Knesset seats required to form a majority coalition. The polls were released Tuesday evening, following a final attempt by Netanyahu and several parties to keep polling stations open past the 10 pm deadline, which the Central Elections Committee rejected.

The outcome could dramatically shift the balance of power in the Knesset due to projected gains by Palestinian parties. Projections indicate these groups could secure as many as 18 seats, an increase from the 10 they currently hold. If Eisenkot fails to secure a majority, experts say he would be obligated to negotiate with the Joint List and Ra’am to form a government, a process that could take several weeks. Alternatively, Eisenkot might attempt to govern as a minority, relying on informal vote-by-vote agreements to maintain support.

Netanyahu addressed supporters at a rally in Jerusalem shortly after 3 am, asserting that official results would confirm Likud as the largest party in Israel. He called for the establishment of a strong, right-wing national government and argued that a cabinet relying on Palestinian party support should not be formed. The Prime Minister had previously suggested publicly that efforts by the left and Arabs were attempting to steal the election, a claim the Central Elections Committee dismissed, stating it found no evidence of systematic tampering.

Eisenkot spoke to cheering supporters in Tel Aviv, declaring that the Israeli public voted against Netanyahu’s service as prime minister. He urged a worthy leader to accept the people's non-confidence and announce retirement from politics. Eisenkot also warned Netanyahu against using Israel’s security for political ends, citing fears that the period of uncertainty could trigger a new attack on Iran. The exit polls had earlier shown Eisenkot winning most seats by a slight margin before revisions suggested a tie, a common occurrence given the historical imprecision of such estimates.

The Central Elections Committee played a decisive role in the final hours of voting by denying the extension requested by Netanyahu’s camp. The committee’s rejection of the request to keep polls open set the stage for the immediate release of exit data. While the final count often swings by several seats, the current projections point to a fragmented Knesset where no single bloc holds a clear path to power without cross-party cooperation or a minority arrangement.