Israelis vote to decide war leadership in tight race

Israeli voters cast ballots on Tuesday to determine the country's next prime minister, with opinion polls indicating a deadlocked race between incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. The election marks the first national vote since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack that triggered a three-year war and regional conflicts. Because no single party has ever won an outright parliamentary majority in Israel's fragmented system, the outcome will likely depend on coalition negotiations that could last for weeks.

The vote serves as a direct referendum on Netanyahu's leadership during a period of unresolved wars and deep domestic division. Netanyahu faces an array of parties seeking to remove him from power, while his supporters view him as a steady hand who has guided Israel through multiple conflicts and protected its Jewish identity. His detractors argue that he has dragged on the war in Gaza and the hostage crisis for political reasons, citing his ongoing corruption trial and perceived attacks on the judiciary as evidence of a polarizing leadership style.

Arab-led parties hold the potential to become kingmakers in this election. Nonaligned Arab parties are pushing for heavy voter turnout, creating a scenario where neither Netanyahu's religious and ultranationalist coalition nor the anti-Netanyahu bloc has enough support to form a government on its own. If these parties agree to support one candidate over the other, they could decide which side forms the next coalition. This dynamic adds a layer of complexity to the negotiations that will follow the polling stations close.

Tensions with Iran hang over the voting process. Netanyahu intensified his threats against Tehran ahead of the vote, appearing in a video this week standing beside a missile-defense battery. In the footage, he warned that Iran would face a devastating blow if it attacked Israel. The military posturing underscores the security environment in which Israelis are making their choice, with the war in Gaza and related conflicts across the region still active.

Emotions ran high as polls opened in key districts. In Kiryat Shmona, a Netanyahu stronghold near the border with Lebanon, one man kicked and tore down a poster of Eisenkot. The scene illustrated the deep divisions within the electorate, which are split not only on the war but also on the fundamental character of the state. The vote is a contest over whether Israel should be heavily influenced by religious and nationalist forces or more firmly anchored in liberal and secular values.

In Tel Aviv, families of those killed on October 7, 2023, or former hostages held a moment of silence before voting began. Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal Adam was killed in the attack, urged voters to remember those whose voices are no more. The personal toll of the conflict remains a central factor for many Israelis, three years after the initial strike that shattered the country's sense of security.

Eisenkot is viewed by his backers as a capable leader with strong security credentials who can act as a bulwark against what they call creeping illiberalism. His supporters point to his personal losses, including his son and two nephews who were killed in Gaza, as evidence that he deeply understands the pain of the conflict. Parties likely to support Eisenkot have vowed to improve Israel's international standing, work to conscript ultra-Orthodox men, and bolster the independence of the judiciary.

Israel's traditional allies have sharply criticized the country's policies and leadership in recent months. Public support among Americans has plummeted, and stalwart partners in Europe have imposed sanctions on Israel in response to its conduct in Gaza and the occupied West Bank. Violence by Jewish settlers in the West Bank has intensified, adding to the diplomatic pressure facing the next government. The election offers Israelis a chance to chart a new course after Netanyahu's turbulent four-year term.