Israel heads to polls Tuesday in race to replace or retain Prime Minister Netanyahu

Three years. That is the duration of the conflict that now defines the upcoming Israeli election, a timeline that has left the nation divided over its leadership and future direction.

Voters will cast ballots on Tuesday to determine whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power or is replaced by a coalition seeking to end his tenure. Opinion polls indicate a close race between Netanyahu and his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the military.

The path to this ballot box began on October 7, 2023, when a Hamas attack triggered a war in Gaza and related clashes across the region. This election marks the first national vote since that date. For many Israelis, the choice is not just about who leads the government but about what kind of country they want to build. Some voters favor a state heavily influenced by religious and nationalist forces, while others prefer a model anchored in liberal and secular values.

Israel’s parliamentary system is fragmented, and no single party has ever secured an outright majority on its own. Leaders must form coalitions to govern. In this tight election, nonaligned Arab parties are pushing for high turnout. If neither Netanyahu’s religious and ultranationalist bloc nor the opposition group reaches a majority, weeks of negotiations could follow before a leader is declared. Arab-led parties may become decisive if they choose to support one candidate over the other.

Tensions with Iran loom over the campaign. Netanyahu has intensified threats against Tehran ahead of the vote. In a video released this week, he stood beside a missile-defense battery and warned that Israel would deliver a devastating blow if attacked.

Netanyahu’s supporters view him as a steady hand who has guided Israel through multiple wars. They argue he protects the country’s Jewish identity and keeps an interventionist judiciary in check. Critics, however, see a polarizing leader who is on trial for corruption. They accuse him of dragging out the war in Gaza and the hostage crisis for political gain. They also argue he is weakening democratic institutions and allowing ultra-Orthodox religious Jews to avoid compulsory military service.

Eisenkot is viewed by his backers as a capable leader with strong security credentials. His son and two nephews were killed in Gaza, a personal loss his supporters say gives him a deep understanding of the national pain. Parties likely to support Eisenkot have pledged to improve Israel’s international standing, conscript ultra-Orthodox men, and bolster judicial independence.

The election arrives at a time when Israel’s traditional allies are expressing frustration. Since 2023, the country has faced increasing isolation over its conduct in Gaza and the West Bank, where violence by Jewish settlers has intensified. Public support among Americans has dropped sharply, and European partners have imposed sanctions in recent months.

The vote will take place against this backdrop of diplomatic strain and domestic division. The outcome will determine whether the current leadership continues or a new government forms to address the unresolved conflicts and internal political debates.