Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar tops opposition in latest Channel 12 poll

Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leads the opposition bloc in the final Channel 12 poll, which projects 56 seats for his camp against 50 for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition. The poll, released Friday, shows neither side holding the 61 seats required to form a government without outside support.

Voting stations opened at 7:00 a.m. on Tuesday. Israeli diplomats finished voting on October 16, and military personnel began casting ballots the previous week. Exit polls are scheduled to air at 10:00 p.m., offering initial projections before the official count is completed in the coming days.

This is the first national election since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. The political center of gravity has shifted from traditional policy debates to immediate security and military concerns. Most parties now agree against establishing a Palestinian state, a position that was more contested in the 2022 vote.

Key issues for voters include the Israel Defense Forces’ manpower crisis after three years of war and the contentious legislation regarding the conscription of haredi men. A state commission of inquiry into the government’s failures during the attack remains a central demand of the opposition, which argues Netanyahu should be held accountable.

Netanyahu’s Likud party is projected to win 19 seats, a drop from the 32 it holds in the current Knesset. Eisenkot’s Yashar party is projected to secure 22 seats, while Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad is expected to win 14. The Arab parties are projected to take a combined 16 seats, though most opposition leaders have pledged not to join a government with them.

The electoral threshold is set at 3.25% of valid votes. According to the Taub Center, a party needs 165,635 votes to enter the Knesset if turnout matches the 70% level of the 2022 election. Smaller parties, including Ofer Winter’s People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists-Economics, are fighting to reach this mark. Their success or failure will determine how many seats are available for coalition building.

Police announced on Monday that approximately 20,000 officers, Border Police personnel, and volunteers will be deployed nationwide on Election Day. Forces are positioned at thousands of polling stations to maintain order and protect the voting process, with a focus on the hours following the release of exit polls.